Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Central Appalachian Forests
In North America, climate change has affected more than 8 million acres of forest through wildfires alone, due primarily to regional droughts and increased temperatures. Summer rainfall has decreased in many Appalachian forests over the past 100 years. This is predicted to have greatest impacts on moist and wetland site environments and associated forest species (Butler et al. 2015). Rising carbon dioxide levels and changes in temperature and precipitation associated with climate changes also are expected to cause shifts in the distribution of many North American tree species.
Projected climate change impacts on Central Appalachia forests and ecosystems at Wildwood Park are summarized on this page, based on the recent Central Appalachian Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment constructed by the USDA Forest Service (Butler et al. 2015). Forest types observed at Wildwood Park include: Dry calcareous forest and woodland; Dry/mesic oak forest; Mixed mesophytic forest; and Large stream floodplain forest.
Predicted Climate Change Impacts in Forests at Wildwood Park
Dry calcareous forests:Dominant trees in this forest type have low to moderate adaptive ability. These forests are predicted to have moderate to high vulnerability and neutral or negative impacts of climate changes due to low shade tolerance and high susceptibility to disturbance impacts such as invasive plants, insects, and disease. Predicted response of common trees are shown below (USDA Forest Service Climate Change Atlas).
Pinus virginiana (Virginia Pine)
Climate change adaptability (Positive Traits): There are no positive traits of climate change on Virginia pine
Climate change (Negative Traits): Shade tolerance and Pollution are negative traits of climate change on this species
Climate change response: An adaptable tree species with a positive (low) seedling establishment rate, Virginia pine has an extremely low shade tolerance. It also has a high dispersal rate and fire regeneration ability
Dry mesic oak forests:Some of the dominant trees in this forest type have moderate to high adaptive ability. These forests are predicted to have low vulnerability and may be positively impacted by climate changes. Predicted response of common trees are shown below (USDA Forest Service Climate Change Atlas). White ash, occurring in both mixed-mesophytic forests and dry/mesic oak forests, is particularly susceptible to disturbance impacts associated with climate change (see section below).
Quercus rubra (Red oak)
Climate change adaptability (Positive Traits): Edaphic specificity and temperature gradients
Climate change (Negative Traits): Insects and disease.
Climate change response: is a very good adapter that can grow in almost any soil at any temperature, provided there is little disease or pests around.
Climate change (Negative Traits): Insects, browse, pollution, disease, fire topkill and shade tolerance
Climate change response: White ash is a very week adapter that responds poorly to most any threat.
Mixed-Mesophytic Forests: Dominant trees in this forest type havemoderate to high adaptive ability. Overall, however, these forests are predicted to have moderate vulnerability and neutral or negative impacts of climate changes. Predicted response of common trees are shown below (USDA Forest Service Climate Change Atlas). White ash, occurring in both mixed-mesophytic forests and dry/mesic oak forests, is particularly susceptible to disturbance impacts associated with climate change.
Climate Change Adaptability (Negative Traits): Drought, fire topkill-Very adaptable species that has a very high dispersal rate and a strong seedling establishment rate.
Likely Response to Climate Change: Very adaptable species that has a very high dispersal rate and a strong seedling establishment rate. It also is adaptable to changes in soil conditions and is also a moderately shade tolerant species with moderate vegetative reproductive abilities.
Likely Response to Climate Change-Biologically, the species is not very adaptable due to it having a very low dispersal rate, poor seedling establishment abilities, very specific habitat conditions and is intolerant to changes in soil conditions. The only major positive trait exhibited by this species is its ability to tolerate high shade conditions.
Wetland/Floodplain forests:Dominant trees in this forest type have low adaptive ability. These forests are predicted to have high vulnerability and negative impacts of climate changes. Of the four forest types present at Wildwood Park this forest type is the most likely to be impacted by climate changes and associated disturbance impacts including insect pests, invasive plants, disease, and drought. Predicted response of common trees are shown below (USDA Forest Service Climate Change Atlas).
Fraxinus pennsylvanica (Green Ash)
Climate change adaptability (Positive Traits): Vegetative reproduction and high dispersal rates.
Climate change (Negative Traits): insects (severe), fire top kill, shade, and disease.
Sources Cited:
Matthews, S. N., Iverson, L. R., Prasad, A. M., Peters, M. P., and Rodewald P. G. 2011. Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history factors. Forest Ecology and Management 262: 1460-1472.
Butler, P. R., Iverson, L., Thompson, F. R. III, Brandt, L., Handler, S., et al. 2015. Central Appalachian forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: A report from the Central Appalachians Climate Change Response Framework project. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-146. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station 146. 1-28.